Drought Over in the Southwest?

 As the summer rains come to the four corners area, white thunderheads loom over mountains still heavily covered in white snow from last winter. People have been skiing remote strands of snow in the San Juan Mountains near Ophir Pass recently while snow melt continues to fill streams and the all important Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers. Are we out of the woods in terms of drought?

   As it turns out, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado were in severe drought in the winter of 2017-2018 and we were below average for snowfall last winter until March when a series of storms hit the southern Rockies and dumped snow on the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Those storms pushed the region up to about 150% above average for snowfall.

   We could see the affects of all that snow. Many avalanches happened on the highway between Ouray and Durango, Colorado, closing the road at times in some of the 25 avalanche chutes that cross Highway 550. A giant rock blocked the Deloris to Telluride Road, confounding the highway department and skiers died in avalanches in New Mexico and southern Colorado.

   Rivers swelled and roared in their channels, from the Animas to the Pecos in the mountains near Santa Fe. Swollen rivers  dumped water into the Rio Grande and other regional rivers. Rafters in the Taos Box were treated to runs with almost no rocks to maneuver around. Some rafters drowned in the fast water on the Rio Grande and the Arkansas Rivers near Buena Vista this spring.

  Winter moisture in our region comes from storms on the Pacific Ocean, particularly when  the southern Pacific is warm at the surface (an El Nino) and when the position of the Jet Stream favors upper level winds pumping that moisture to our area. Sometimes we get winter storms from the Gulf of Mexico but more often upper level moist air from the Gulf feeds our summer “monsoons.”  So far both of these things have been happening over last winter and this summer.

   What do we make of extreme drought one year, and very wet conditions the next as happened over the last two years? Climate scientists have noticed that these extreme reversals have become more frequent since 1960. Overall, scientists expect the southwest will suffer increasing drought as temperatures continue to rise and shifts in wind patterns world wide happen in response to human caused climate change.  And shorter and earlier springs will lead to faster snowmelt and more snow evaporation (sublimation)before it can soak into the ground and feed springs and rivers.

   This year, the increased snowfall and snow melt found dry soils and dry vegetation eager to soak up the water. Saturating those soils so runoff could begin took longer than it would in subsequent wet years. Likewise the trees that have been extremely dry and flammable in Southwest forests are now filled with moisture and able to fight off beetle attacks and resist crown fire because of the moisture in their needles.

   Rivers in our region develop in mountains and the water flows out into lower desert regions. These rivers are critical for wildlife and for ever increasing populations of people moving into the Southwest. How these rivers will fare in the not too distant future is hard to predict but it’s easy to see that the growing population of cities in the Colorado River Basin are mismatched with climate trends.

   Though the future looks troubled by climate change in the Southwest, we can all enjoy the wet years, knowing that they will continue to happen from time to time. This year is an excellent year for rafting local rivers, fishing, and paddle boarding on the lakes and ponds. Hike up a river valley and listen to the water in the streams. See the wildflowers thriving on the extra moisture and hear the birds sing praise of water, sweet water.